Pre-WV Election Commentary

Yeah, so West Virginia is voting today, but there isn't much to watch for, we all know how it is going to go. While Obama doesn't have a white problem, he does have an Appalachian problem, or more specifically a problem with uneducated or less educated people, people who tend to be more conservative and racist. Not only is West Virginia the least educated state yet to vote, it is also has one of the oldest electorates, which also plays well for Hillary. Essentially, if Ohio and Pennsylvania were tailor made for Hillary, the voters of West Virginia were hand picked for Hillary.

Thus we will see huge win for Hillary here, just as we will in Kentucky, which has similar demographics. The problem is that in these latter primaries, many of the states include parts of Appalachia, so in Ohio, Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Kentucky Obama gets hit with a big Appalachian penalty, which is the source of all the "white problem" or "blue collar problem" talk.

But it has nothing to do with race, or income, or how hard people work, or values, and it has everything to do with a lack of education exacerbated by incredibly poverty. Yes, they are racist, and in the end that is a large part of why they aren't voting for Obama, but they are racist because they don't know any better, they are racist for many of the same reasons Obama has highlighted, namely having a long history of being exploited, lied to and left behind economically.Here is a good diary about the hurdles we face in West Virginia. While I am angry at the despicable racism that runs rampant in West Virginia (and the fact that Hillary embraces that racism as a sign of "progress" for her campaign), the author of the diary makes a good point, which is that it all comes down to ignorance, and in large part they can't help it. Sure, that doesn't excuse the bigotry, but it does help to explain how it became so entrenched. We can't give up on West Virginia or any state though if we really believe in a 50-state strategy. Very red states and districts from coast to coast are going purple and blue, so anything is possible, we just have to work hard, and realize that it will take a lot of time. I suspect 8 years of an Obama presidency will change a lot of minds in these places, or at least sow the seeds.

And speaking of those red to blue transitions taking place, tonight the real race to keep an eye on is the House race in Mississippi's 1st district where three weeks ago Democrat Travis Childers beat Republican Greg Davis by 49%-46%, but was less than a percent shy of the 50% needed to prevent a runoff vote. That runoff vote is what we are watching tonight. Oh, and this district voted 62%-37% for Bush in 2004. And we have a good chance of winning this tonight, just like we did recently in Illinois and Louisiana. Nowhere is hopeless, we just have to try hard.

Education and economic development in Appalachia would probably be a good place to start.

Here's to Appalachia:



Update: The Democrats have won a third House special election in a deep red district (by 8%!!)! Congratulations Rep. Travis Childers, the new Democratic member of Congress from Mississippi! And this once again shows that the Republicans aren't hurting Democrats by running ads linking them to Obama, if anything they are doing Democrats favors. The GOP has to be freaking out right about now, as this all portends another devastating election year for the Republicans. That's gotta hurt. More analysis here. And more here. And conservative/media reaction here (it put a smile on my face).

Update #2: On, and on the West Virginia election results, nothing surprising.

Update #3: Obama's statement on the Mississippi special election:

I want to congratulate Congressman-elect Travis Childers on winning this special election. By electing Travis in this traditionally overwhelmingly Republican district, the people of Mississippi voted to end the politics of division and distraction, and bring about real change. This is the third special election in recent months that Democrats have won in traditionally Republican areas -- an unmistakable sign that Americans want to make a clean break from the failed Bush policies of the past - and are not looking for four more years of those failed policies from John McCain. I look forward to working with Travis in the months ahead to fix our economy, and make a difference in the lives of America's hardworking families.

Update #4: John Edwards got 7% of the vote in WV, even though he hasn't been a candidate for months. We can only guess what percent of those voters actually had no idea that John Edwards was out of the race.

Update #5: And once again, about a quarter of Republican voters voted against John McCain, the Republican nominee.

Obama Is Up Two More Delegates In Mississippi

Today the Mississippi Secretary of State finally got around to certifying the results of the Mississippi primary, and it turns out that Hillary lost a delegate and Obama gained one, giving him a net boost of two pledged delegates over what the media reported on election night, along with more popular votes to add to his lead.

Percent chance the media mentions it or even changes their delegate counters?: 5%

And the impassible gulf in delegates grows even wider...

The Limbaugh Effect (Hillary: The GOP's Weapon of Choice)

So it looks like Hillary may very well be getting a big boost from Republicans wanting to keep her in the race either to beat Obama and give the Republicans an easy victory in November, or to just keep her kicking long enough to take the Democratic Party down in flames, per Rush Limbaugh's request. He made the plea to his supporters before the Texas primacaucus and may have given her a little push.

In Mississippi it may have given her more than a little bit of a push, although she still lost bad. A full 25% of Hillary's voters in Mississippi were Republican, which if you know anything about how vilified Hillary is to conservatives, and even many moderates, is a huge red flag. The end result was that what would have been a giant sweep for Obama (70%-30%, and a 15 net delegates, without Hillary's GOP support) was softened into just a serious ass kicking of 61% to 37%, with only a net of 5 delegates. So Republicans in this one may have cost him 10 delegates, not to mention running up the anti-Obama white vote in the exit polls.

So Hillary continues to reap the benefits of Limbaugh's support, while him and the rest of the Republicans are smiling ear to ear as they watch Hillary do all of their dirty work (and I mean DIRTY) for them. It looks like Hillary found a new best friend, and so have the Republicans.