The Obama Effect (Alaska Edition)

I haven't done one of these for quite some time, but I'd like to take a moment to highlight an important application of the Obama Effect, and why it is a very good thing that he is going to be our nominee. Today's test case is Alaska, red red Alaska.

So we have two important congressional races in Alaska this November:

First we have the Senate election. The seat is currently held by Republican Sen. Ted Stevens. And here is the most recent poll:

Stevens (R) 43 (41)
Begich (D) 48 (47)

That is good news for Democrats, it looks like there is a very good shot of yet another congressional pickup from a traditionally red area. Now the House race:

Alaska is represented by one Representative in the US House, Republican Don Young. And here is the latest poll on that race:

Young (R) 40 (42)
Berkowitz (D) 50 (49)

Ouch! This looks like another great chance for a pickup! But this is where the Obama Effect comes into play. These races are still up in the air, and turnout is what will matter. Let's see how the presidential matchups look:

McCain (R) 49
Obama (D) 42

McCain (R) 55
Clinton (D) 37

Hmmm, so we have Obama within striking distance, only 7 behind, but with 7% undecided and a lot of time to narrow the gap. [For comparison Bush beat Kerry 61%-36% in 2004]. But winning Alaska isn't the important part, the down the ticket races are. What we can see from these numbers is that Hillary does far worse than Obama in Alaska, losing to McCain by 18%. If she were at the top of the ticket that would most likely sink both Begich and Berkowitz. Who is at the top of the ballot is very important. We need a candidate who will help put us over the top, not someone who will energize the Republican base and boost the numbers of the Republicans. Luckily we are going into the general election with Obama, so Alaska is in good shape for us, and other close congressional candidates around the country should be cheering our nomination of Obama.

Al Franken in Minnesota is another good Democrat running for the Senate that I can think of off the top of my head that could use the Obama boost.

Update: I should have also pointed out that Obama won the Alaskan primary with a whopping 74% of the vote, something that Hillary couldn't even come close to in tailor-made West Virginia. Oh yeah, and there aren't many well-educated, latte-sipping blacks in Alaska, weird.