Tuesday, May 13, 2008

New Poll Shows Blue Skies For Obama

The first big ABC News/Washington Post poll out since Obama became the "presumptive nominee" (according to the media, to those math-inclined this point actually came a long time ago) shows that Obama doesn't have much to worry about, contrary to Hillary's bullshit spin.

The poll shows Obama easily beating McCain nationally in a general matchup, by 7%. Hillary only narrowly edges McCain by 3% (and as usual, it should be noted that this does not account for increased Hillary Effect turnout by the Republicans. Also the national numbers only represent the popular vote, which artificially inflates Hillary's chances of victory because Democrats always hold down the high population states of NY and California. In reality poll after poll shows Hillary even has big problems holding down blue states like Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota, Washington and Oregon. She can spin all she wants about swing states, based on faulty logic, but if she can't beat Obama in blue states it doesn't matter if she carried all the traditional "swing" states.

Obama leads Hillary by 12% now, the largest margin ever in this poll. So much for all her talk of the media's hyped up pseudoscandals damaging Obama. It would also be hard for Obama to lead Hillary by 12% nationally if he didn't enjoy the support of a broad cross section of Americans. There is no white problem, there are no demographic problems whatsoever. There has never been any evidence of any problems, despite Hillary's distortions and the media's echoing of them.

Obama is also considered a stronger leader than Hillary, by 7%.

And here is more good news for Obama. The survey asked how voters' perception of the candidates changed the more they learned about them. For Hillary 15% liked her more the more they learned. For McCain it was 14%. For Obama it was 26%. This shows that even with all the Wright BS, which likely affected the numbers, Obama still has a lot more room to go up before hitting his ceiling, while the other two candidates are much closer to their apogees.

Anyway, in totality this should give comfort to Democrats, especially considering that McCain has basically gotten a free ride for the last few months while Obama has been weathering attacks from both sides. Despite all of that, Obama is still in a very good position to defeat McCain in November, and there is every indication that Obama's numbers will go up up up as the general election heats up, and Hillary finally fades away.

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